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► Welcome Message

Three different series of events, the EGU Leonardo Conference, held every year in Europe, the IAHS Statistical Hydrology (STAHY) Workshop, held every year in different places of the world, and the Hydrofractals Conference, held every ten years, coincide in space and time: Kos Island, Greece, 17–19 October 2013. Each of these events has its own dynamics but all three have been set to focus on a common idea: the uncertainty in natural processes. It is hoped that the different views within the three components of the Kos convention will shed light to the many facets of uncertainty.

Uncertainty has often been regarded as an opponent of science, whose task is to eliminate it or reduce it as much as possible. However, it has also been argued that uncertainty is intrinsic in nature, impossible to eliminate, and also a quality with positive aspects. Understanding and quantifying uncertainty could make the understanding of Nature more feasible and its modelling more realistic.

Therefore, the focus of the Kos convention is not to contribute to uncertainty elimination, but rather to show how deterministic modelling approaches can be combined with uncertainty estimation to improve the quality of models and predictions.

The country chosen to host this event, Greece, is ideal to study uncertainty (cf. Heraclitus, Epicurus, and other Greek philosophers who first conceptualized uncertainty).

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